As Andrew Sullivan of the Daily Beast noted, “. . . [I]t’s beginning to look as if the RNC may have brought down the prospects of the Republican nominee.” You can read all the technical gobbledy-gook here, but in a nutshell, President Obama earned himself a massive bump post-convention; as Sullivan also noted, “If Obama gets to 50 percent and stays there, this is a changed race, affected by the parties’ presentation of their candidates and their core messages. I.e. GOP-FAIL . . . .”
Since the DNC, President Obama has shot up in the polls. Nate Silver, at FiveThirtyEight.com, believes the convention was strong enough that “the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.”
Here’s Silver’s prediction of the electoral college:
As GOP-loving Rasmussen pointed out, “Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.”
We can’t get complacent, of course; there’s still tons of Romney money just itching to fly out of pockets to buy this election, there’s still a wealth of misinformation and lies the Romney camp hasn’t even floated yet, and there’s still voter suppression that will quickly – in the wake of President Obama’s soaring numbers – become a desperate thing indeed.
On the other hand, we also have ahead of us three presidential debates, any one (or all) of which could deliver a knockout punch to even Romney’s most faithful followers.
There are desperate days ahead for Republicans, and if the past is the best predictor of the future, desperate crazy people translates into dangerous crazy people.
Gird your loins, watch your back – oh, and don’t forget to vote.